What will Dubbo’s climate be in 2050 and beyond?
Two independent analyses predict that average daily temperatures will increase between 2.5 and 4.5 ºC.
The analysis by the ANU’s Climate Change Institute, shows that at the higher end, Dubbo’s average daily temperature (as experienced in the 1960’s to 1990’s) will increase from 23.8 ºC to 28.3 ºC by 2050 if nothing is done to curb climate change. Winter as we know it will cease to exist. And the heat of the horrendous summer of 2019-20 will be the norm. We can expect to experience 25 days over 40 ºC during summer, that’s compared with a 1960-1990 average of just 1 day.
Modelling released by the NSW Government agrees with that of the ANU’s Climate Change Institute, in that the temperatures will trend up, but differ by the amount. The Government modelling predicts the daily maximum temperatures to increase by 2.15 ºC for Dubbo in the ‘far future’ (2060-2079), with an additional 30-40 days (on average) above 35 ºC. Average annual rainfall is predicted to increase by about 8%, with a decrease in spring (6%) and an increase in Autumn (14%); although it must be said that the rainfall forecasts are highly variable.
It is not doom and gloom though. There is hope. These changes are not baked in (excuse the pun). Through our individual actions to reduce our own carbon footprints, and by pressuring businesses and governments to take meaningful steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions we can slow, stop, and even reverse global warming.
Warming will occur, and before we can reverse it, we will experience it. So we must also prepare ourselves, creating the resilience we need to live in a hotter climate.
What will we do as a community to prepare?
Transition Dubbo acknowledges the traditional custodians of the land on which we live, who build and foster sustainable communities. We also pay our respects to elders past, present and future.